The Opening: Ian Goldin starts by saying that the smartest people of the last decade were completely off-base with their predictions for the future. He uses some images of those failed predictions to explain that the world is developing at a rate that no one was expecting and with which no one is familiar. Goldin explains that urbanization and globalization have changed the world at an accelerated rate.
Main points: Goldin continues by giving examples of how those changes have manifested. He talks about the positive aspects of this globalization and follows with a list of negative examples of globalization as a caution to the world that it needs to be managed well in order to benefit everyone. Some of the positive aspects are the fact that life expectancy has increased by 25 years in the past 40 year period, that income around the world has gone up and that illiteracy has gone down. Unfortunately, a drawback of increased life expectancy (and decreased birth rate) is that developed economies are suffering from aging populations. In his view, this will make pensions and retirement redundant in 2030; due to the improvement in science, people will be expected to work for as long as they can and then live off of their savings because the governments will not be able to help. Goldin also explains that while income has gone up across the world due to globalization, this increased interdependence has left financial systems vulnerable to financial crises. Finally, he claims that countries will need more human capital in order to grow their businesses and so the war on talent will finally come to a close as companies simply try to find the best candidate for their company.
Closing: Ian Goldin cautions that while globalization has the potential to be a positive driving force, it has an equal potential of being a very negative driving force. He warns that if globalization does help everyone, those left in the dust will retaliate and will have the potential to wipe out the entire human population through a bio-agent, for example.
My Opinion: First, the speaker didn’t really set up a good basis for trusting him. He opens his talk by explaining that the greatest minds of the past decade were wrong with their predictions. Ironically, then he goes on to tell us his predictions of the future. Given that he just told me that people are not capable of making accurate predictions, why should I believe his predictions? He hasn’t explained that he had made correct predictions in the past or that he used some superior data-based method to make his predictions. For all we know, his talk will be put up in a future discussion showing has inaccurate past predictions have been.
Secondly, while I agree with his assessment of the potential dangers that our society faces, I do not believe that we will be able to overcome them. Ian Goldin suggests that if we don’t make sure that everyone benefits from globalization, there will be retaliation. That is a point that is proven every time residents from a developing country perform a terrorist attack on the developed world. Residents in war torn countries are angry that residents of developed countries are living the good life while they are stuck with all of the conflict. A thousand years ago, it was actually the Middle East that was developed while the west remained uncivilized. Goldin claims that current international systems and organizations are incapable of fixing these problems as the world is developing at a pace too fast for the organizations to adapt to. Thus, he claims that the only way to prevent this future of continued attacks by unhappy people is to ensure that countries work together and collectively manage the system. From what we have seen over the past year, it seems that the most influential countries in the world are blinded by prejudice and are simply too selfish to work with other governments. So, while I would love to believe in Ian Goldin’s optimistic prescription, I fear that we will have to find a different way to ensure that all countries will benefit from globalization. Unfortunately, I believe that people are too self-involved to notice what is going on around them. By the time that we, as a species, realize that we need to let go of prejudice and work together to improve our collective well-being and preserve our environment, it may be too late.
All that being said, while I don’t agree with Goldin that the solution is that simple, I strive to lead my life by promoting collaboration and positive change in the world. I did some research on some of the statistics that Ian Goldin mentioned in the talk and was pleasantly surprised to find out that the illiteracy around the world is dropping significantly: thirty years ago 50% of the world was illiterate, ten years ago 25% of the world was illiterate and today only 15% of the world is illiterate. As a strong believer in the power of education, I am more confident in the trends around the world. Yet, in order for those trends to continue, governments will have to learn to promote equality and collaboration instead of hindering it as they are doing at the moment.